Difference between revisions of "Probability of fixation"

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(Notes)
(Notes)
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equation 3 of [[Kimura 1962]].
 
equation 3 of [[Kimura 1962]].
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<math>u(p, t+\delta t) = \int f(p, p+\delta p; \delta t) u(p+ \delta p, t) d(\delta p)</math>

Revision as of 06:56, 23 September 2018

This was derived in Kimura 1962.

[math]u(p)=\frac{1-e^{4N_esp}}{1-e^{4N_es}}[/math]

If we are considering the initial frequency of a single new mutation in the population p=1/(2Ne),

[math]u(p)_1=\frac{1-e^{4N_es\frac{1}{2N_e}}}{1-e^{4N_es}}=\frac{1-e^{2s}}{1-e^{4N_es}}[/math].

And if 4Nes is large

[math]u(p)_2\approx\frac{1-e^{2s}}{1}=1-e^{2s}[/math].

[math]e^{2s}\approx 1+2s[/math]

[math]u(p)_2 \approx 1-e^{2s} \approx 1-1+2s = 2s[/math].

This agrees with the results of Fisher 1930 and Wright 1931.

Notes

This is derived from

[math]u(p) = \frac{\int_0^p G(x)dx}{\int_0^1 G(x)dx}[/math],

equation 3 of Kimura 1962.

[math]u(p, t+\delta t) = \int f(p, p+\delta p; \delta t) u(p+ \delta p, t) d(\delta p)[/math]